Pregunta de los lectores: mi pregunta es si el Reino Unido. se había unido al euro cuando comenzó, sería el Reino Unido. se han beneficiado como Alemania o estaríamos en la misma situación que Grecia, Italia y España?
Si el Reino Unido se hubiera unido al euro desde el comienzo en 1999, la economía del Reino Unido definitivamente se habría visto afectada de varias maneras. En primer lugar, en el euro tendríamos un tipo de cambio fijo, ninguna política monetaria independiente, la política fiscal se vería severamente restringida y el mercado de bonos del Reino Unido no habría tenido intervención del Banco Central.
En resumen, podríamos haber esperado: un auge y una caída de la vivienda más grandes. Una recesión más profunda en 2009. El aumento de los rendimientos de los bonos en 2010-12, lo que lleva a una mayor austeridad. Sin devaluación y exportaciones menos competitivas.
Burbuja inmobiliaria
Los años 2000 a 2007 fueron relativamente estables para la zona euro y el euro. Sin embargo, debido al mayor crecimiento en el Reino Unido, los tipos de interés del BCE fueron más bajos que los tipos de interés del Banco de Inglaterra. Entre 2003 y principios de 2005, los tipos de interés del BCE fueron del 2%, los tipos del Reino Unido fueron más altos en torno al 4%.
Si el Reino Unido hubiera estado en el euro, podríamos haber visto una burbuja de activos más grande durante los años 2003-06. Las tasas de interés más bajas habrían alentado a más personas a ingresar al mercado de la vivienda, lo que habría provocado un aumento aún mayor en los precios de la vivienda. Estas tasas de interés más bajas habrían provocado un mayor crecimiento económico en el período 2000-07, pero a costa de un mayor auge crediticio y de la vivienda. El Reino Unido es particularmente sensible a las tasas de interés porque muchos propietarios tienen una hipoteca variable.
Si los precios de la vivienda hubieran subido más rápido (04-07), habrían sido una caída mayor, después de 2008. La caída de los precios de la vivienda después de 2008 fue un lastre para el gasto del consumidor y contribuyó a las pérdidas bancarias. Si los precios de la vivienda cayeron a un gran ritmo, entonces la crisis financiera habría sido más dolorosa y los bancos perdieron aún más dinero.
Respuesta a la recesión de 2008
La crisis económica y financiera de 2008 afectó al Reino Unido más que a la mayoría de las demás economías europeas. Esto se debió en parte a que la economía del Reino Unido tiene una mayor dependencia de la banca y las finanzas, sectores afectados negativamente por la crisis crediticia. Otras economías europeas, como Alemania, también experimentaron una gran caída del PIB durante 2009, pero pudieron recuperarse de la recesión más rápido que el Reino Unido y el sur de Europa.
En respuesta a esta caída de la producción, el Reino Unido siguió una política fiscal y monetaria diferente a la del resto de Europa. Si el Reino Unido hubiera estado en el euro, no habríamos podido seguir esta política monetaria y fiscal independiente.
En qué se diferencia la política del Reino Unido de la política europea
- The UK pursued quantitative easing from 2009 to reduce bond yields and increase money supply. This helped keep UK government bonds low. It is doubtful whether quantitative easing had much impact on boosting economic recovery. But, without Q.E. the recession could have been deeper.
- Interest rates were cut to 0.5% in March 2009 – quicker than the ECB cut interest rates.
- The government announced some fiscal expansion (tax cuts) and spending increases to provide a fiscal stimulus up until 2010.
- The pursuit of quantitative easing and the deep recession, caused the pound to fall 20%. This helped domestic demand by making UK exports more competitive and imports more expensive.
If the UK was in the Euro, we would have not benefited from the depreciation in the currency, and export demand would have been even lower. Admittedly, the benefits of a 25% depreciation were less than might have been expected. This was due to the low export demand in Europe. But, a strong Pound in 2009, would have made the economic situation even more difficult for UK manufacturing.
If the UK was in the Euro, interest rates, set by the ECB, would have fallen slower at the start of the recession. Also, the ECB increased interest rates in 2011 – concerned about inflationary pressures. This would have worsened the UK double dip recession. The ECB have often shown much more concern over inflation than the Bank of England. The Bank of England tolerated cost-push inflation of 5% – but the ECB have greater emphasis on always keeping inflation on target. (see: ECB v Bank of England)
You could argue in a liquidity trap lower interest rates haven’t made much difference anyway, but if the UK had higher interest rates in the recession, we might have seen more homeowners and business default on mortgages and loans.
Despite these unorthodox measures, the UK economy was slow to recover. This might suggest they were ineffective. But, without the monetary and fiscal stimulus, the recession would have been even deeper and longer than we experienced.
Bond Yields and Fiscal Crisis
After 2009, many countries in the Eurozone saw rapid increases in bond yields. Starting with Greece and then spreading to Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy.
Bond yields rose for various reasons, but an important reason was because markets feared the liquidity of countries in the Eurozone. In the Eurozone, there is no Central bank to step in and buy bonds if necessary. This makes countries more susceptible to liquidity crisis, and therefore bond yields rose. (see more explanation here: Independent currency and economic performance)
There is a dramatic divergence between the UK / Germany and Eurozone economies.
Would the UK have experienced rising bond yields like Ireland, Italy and Portugal or would the UK have been seen as a safe haven like Germany?
Given the scale of the UK’s recession and budget deficit – it is very hard to imagine the UK being seen as a safe haven like Germany.
The UK had one of the highest budget deficits in the Eurozone – at over 11% of GDP in 2009/10, it was second to only Greece.
OECD – Budget deficits 2012
If we compare the relative budget deficits of UK with Portugal, Spain and Italy – you might expect bond yields to be the other way around.
It shows that being in the Euro, makes you much more susceptible to rising bond yields.
If the UK had been in the Euro, I believe we would have experienced a similar fate to Italy and Spain. Markets would have taken fright and stopped buying UK bonds. This would have pushed up bond yields and encouraged the government to pursue greater and deeper austerity. This would have caused a deeper double dip recession. There is evidence that such austerity measures are self-defeating, but in the Euro the UK would almost certainly have pursued much bigger spending cuts and higher taxes. It would have left us in the unwelcome situation of falling GDP and struggling to reduce a debt to GDP ratio.
Conclusion
If the UK had been in the Euro we would have had a much deeper and longer lasting recession. We would almost certainly have faced a bond crisis resulting from the market fears over Euro bonds. This would have created a pressure to pursue really deep austerity. This austerity would have caused a much deeper double dip recession and left the UK with few options to promote growth and reduce unemployment. Furthermore, we would also be facing an overvalued exchange rate with a decline in competitiveness which would put even bigger downward pressures on real wages and output.
If the UK had been in the Euro, it would have increased the likelihood of the Euro breaking up. A fiscal crisis in the UK would require even bigger bailout funds that would have made it more difficult to deal with.
Mantenerse fuera del euro fue bueno para el Reino Unido, pero también muy bueno para el resto de la eurozona.
Relacionado
- Problemas del euro