La historia reciente de la libra frente al euro y las previsiones para los próximos meses.
Últimos tipos de cambio de libras esterlinas en el Banco de Inglaterra
Desde el verano de 2012, la libra ha caído casi un 11% frente al euro. La principal razón es que la intervención del BCE ha ayudado a estabilizar el euro y los temores a la deuda de la UE han retrocedido temporalmente. Como consecuencia, el dinero ha comenzado a fluir hacia la eurozona nuevamente y hay menos razones para ver al Reino Unido como un refugio seguro en comparación con el euro.
En segundo lugar, la economía del Reino Unido se ha estancado. En 2012, entramos en una recesión de doble caída y existe la posibilidad de una recesión de triple caída en 2013; el Reino Unido podría evitar una recesión técnica, pero el panorama general es sombrío (ver: crecimiento económico). Debido a que el Reino Unido está experimentando una recuperación muy lenta, al gobierno le resulta difícil reducir su relación deuda / PIB.
En febrero de 2013, Moody redujo la calificación de la deuda del Reino Unido a AA1 por primera vez en la historia. La rebaja de Moody’s se produjo porque estaban preocupados por el estancamiento del crecimiento en el Reino Unido, lo que significa que los ingresos fiscales serán menores de lo esperado, lo que dificultará la reducción de la relación deuda / PIB. La rebaja se esperaba en gran medida y no tendrá un impacto directo en el tipo de cambio, pero es un reflejo del decepcionante desempeño económico.
Déficit por cuenta corriente del Reino Unido
Algunos temen que, dado el importante déficit por cuenta corriente (el déficit del Reino Unido es de alrededor del 3% del PIB), la libra puede seguir cayendo frente al euro. Algunos comentaristas creen que la libra tendrá que caer a £ 1 = € 1 para restaurar la competitividad y reequilibrar la economía.
The logic of this negative outlook for Sterling against the Euro, is that there is now nothing about the UK economy which deserves to give it a ‘safe haven status’ compared to the Euro. With the ECB now more willing to intervene against liquidity shortages, the UK has no real value as a safe haven alternative, which is seemed to at the start of 2012. Furthermore, with a credit rating downgrade and poor prospects for growth, the UK economy is likely to struggle, keeping interest rates low and making it less attractive as a place to attract investment.
Weak growth and quantitative easing
The weak prospects for economic growth raise the prospect of extended quantitative easing in the UK. Further monetary easing will contribute to inflationary pressures and weaken Sterling. In recent years, the UK has been more susceptible to cost-push inflation than the Eurozone, the extent of quantitative easing in the UK means that this relatively higher inflation in the UK may continue. Ironically, depreciation of the past few months itself will cause some cost-push inflation, like in 2009.
However, bear in mind underlying weaknesses in the Eurozone
Before, we write off the Pound, bear in mind, that the Eurozone still faces significant structural problems, which have only been temporarily averted by ECB intervention since last year. There is no guarantee that there will remain satisfactory ECB intervention. Also the bond purchases haven’t resolved the more deep-seated problems of low growth and very high unemployment within the EU economy. Markets may worry about the inflationary impact of quantitative easing in the UK, but arguably this is a stronger long-term position than being locked into deflation debt spirals that many southern Eurozone economies are facing. The Eurozone bond crisis has been temporarily been put on the back burner, but it is far from solved.Long-term Eurozone economic problems may return to haunt the Euro.
Euro to £ since 2005
The appreciation from 2009 to Aug 2012 has been wiped away by recent depreciation
Outlook for Pound to Euro in 2013
The Pound may continue to fall closer to 1.0 as we rebalance the UK economy, but any resurgence of problems in the Euro, could lead to a reversal of the Pound’s fortunes.
These are the economic factors which will influence the future value of the Pound.
Factors which Influence Pound
Interest Rates. When UK interest rates are low, it is less attractive to hold savings in UK banks. Therefore, there are less hot money flows into the UK. The sharp drop in UK interest rates from 5% to 0.5% made the UK a less attractive place to hold savings, so the value of Sterling has gone down. Slow growth in the UK mean interest rates are unlikely to rise in the near future.
- However, interest rates are low around the world. The country to exit recession first and increase interest rates may see significant hot money flows as investors look for better yields.
Relative Inflation rates. If UK inflation is relatively higher than the Eurozone, then UK goods will be relatively less attractive. This will cause British people to buy more Eurozone imports. It will make it harder to export UK goods. Therefore, in the long-term higher inflation will reduce the value of Pound Sterling to regain competitiveness.
Relative Productivity and competitiveness. In the long term, productivity growth will have a significant bearing on the exchange rate. Productivity growth will make UK goods more competitive and increase demand for UK exports (and hence Sterling). The UK’s poor productivity growth in recent years is undermining Sterling.
Quantitative Easing. The UK has embraced quantitative easing and is effectively increasing the money supply. This increases the chance of inflation and therefore a reduction in the value of the exchange rate. The ECB (heavily influenced by the German anti-inflation sentiment) are much more reluctant to embrace an increase in the money supply. This has stregthened the Euro.
- However, the fact the UK is pursuing quantitative easing increases the chance of a quick recovery and a rise in interest rates to deal with the inflationary pressure. Therefore, this prospect of a rise in UK interest rates could increase the value of the Pound. It is likely UK rates will rise before ECB rates.
Government Borrowing. The size of UK government borrowing and the forecasts of a rise in public sector debt as a % of GDP has worried markets. There is a fear that this could be inflationary (or unsustainable). Though at current levels, it shouldn’t be a major cause for concern. The UK is not alone in having large debts.
Current Account A current account deficit means that the value of exports is less than imports. Therefore, there is a net outflow of money on the current account. This requires a surplus on the financial / capital account. But, if these capital flows dry up, it will cause a depreciation in the Pound. Generally, a large current account causes a depreciation in the exchange rate to restore competitiveness.
Fair Value of the Pound to Euro?
With a Pound = 1.0 Euros, items on the continent seem expensive (except alcohol, petrol and cigarettes). Places like Spain and Greece are no longer cheap for the British tourist. A fairer value may be closer to 1.` Euros. (However, this is very subjective and purchasing power parity values often don’t influence exchange rates in short term)
La economía del Reino Unido fue inicialmente la más afectada por la gran depresión. Pero, la combinación de flexibilización cuantitativa, tipos de interés cero y un gran endeudamiento público significa que es probable que se recupere antes que la economía de la zona euro, que parece cada vez más sombría. Esto apunta a un aumento tentativo en el valor de la libra, a menos que el Reino Unido experimente una recesión de doble caída.
Relacionado
- Factores que influyen en los tipos de cambio
¿Debería el Reino Unido unirse al euro?
Estadísticas
Últimos tipos de cambio de libras esterlinas en el Banco de Inglaterra